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Sunday, 12 April 2015

Economy and Efficiency: Santiago Cazorla vs. Burnley


The Burnley vs Arsenal game on the 11th April 2015 made for intriguing viewing. Arsenal, chasing an eighth straight league win, fought a narrow victory over relegation threatened Burnley; one nil. With Aaron Ramsey scoring the only goal of the game soon after the ten minute mark, Arsenal were in a situation where they were defending this slender lead for the rest of the game. Once it was one nil, the easy assumption to make would be that Arsenal would run riot and Sanchez and Giroud would help themselves to goals as they did against Liverpool the weekend previous. As it transpired, the game was one which tested Arsenal's patience, resolve and pragmatism due to Burnley's efforts and it quickly became obvious this would be no cricket score. I shall point to the role of Santi Cazorla in the Arsenal midfield and argue he was a focal point of carrying out the balance between ball retention and providing a threat. Santi Cazorla’s economy and efficiency with the ball was superb. His intelligent, quick-but not hurried-passing frustrated Burnley increasingly when they desperately needed the ball in search of an equaliser. Moreover, as the game progressed and Burnley tried to attack in the second half, Cazorla’s performance and influence rose.
Arsenal like to keep possession of the ball and as the second half progressed they managed to accomplish more authority of the game’s tempo despite Burnley’s best attempts.  Arsenal were distributing the ball frequently in the middle of the pitch, where Burnley were pressing quickly and so keeping calm possession was not easy. Composure was paramount to Arsenal's success and Cazorla’s vision to see teammates before receiving the ball was evident with quick one touch passes before interceptions were possible. Cazorla’s pass completion was 94%, compared to Arsenal’s average of 83%; this despite his position being in the most congested part of the field, just on the half way line. This was also higher than his own average of 88% in the league this season. Pass completion by itself is a useless statistic, and if you are chasing the game, then risks need to be taken and merely making safe passes in safe positions is not threatening to the opposition. Arsenal, however were preserving a narrow marginal advantage in the game and Cazorla’s immensely impressive ball retention under pressure caused frustration for Burnley and breathing space for Arsenal.  His ability to receive and pass the ball efficiently in tight spaces gave his pacey teammates like Bellerin, Sanchez and Welbeck license to receive the ball in open channels and be able to try and create chances. Furthermore, Cazorla found the balance between being safe with the ball and providing a threat. He attempted more dribbles in the match than any other Arsenal player, and had three shots outside the box. Cazorla is a proven, fine player at shooting from range, and was close to scoring twice against Burnley when it was not a clear cut chance situation.

In conclusion, Cazorla was central to Arsenal’s preservation of their one goal lead, drawing Burnley players into trying to dispossess him and being able to find teammates in good spaces, and crucially this improved as the game progressed. There is no doubt that having an enforcer in Francis Coquelin helps him in midfield and recently Cazorla’s fine form has been synonymous with the rise of the young French midfielder just behind him in midfield. Cazorla will win more plaudits in many more games than this one, however his subtlety, efficiency and intelligence on the ball in a pressure situation was superb in this important Arsenal win.

Statistics gathered from 'Squawka' and 'Whoscored' databases.

Tuesday, 17 March 2015

Why Possession is Not Conducive to Victory in Football: Statistics and Conclusions

Although the perception that possession is the way to win football matches is decreasing, perhaps due to the comparative decline of Spain and Barcelona in recent years, there is still a misguided belief that if a team commands superior possession, they must be the superior side in a match. Passing football can look beautiful and certainly it can get results, but it is not conducive to getting three points. There has been a lot of work on statistics in recent times, the 'Numbers Game' publication by Chris Anderson and David Sally is an illuminating read on why possession and even shots on goal are not safe means of winning a match.
I have collated data from the Premier league and Championship on the 14th March 2015, and the following table and scatter graph show that an overwhelming amount of games were won by teams who had less possession than their opponents. Furthermore, Burnley's 30% possession and victory came against the champions Manchester City, and low lying Cardiff City's victory and less than one third of possession came against promotion chasing Brentford.
 
Winning Sides
Possession%
Crystal Palace
43
Aston Villa
60
WestBromwichAlbion
43
Arsenal
68
Burnley
30
Middlesbrough
43
Blackburn Rovers
47
Watford
62
Bournemouth
65
Cardiff City
33
Bolton Wanderers
45
Wigan
42

As you can see, four sides won with having a higher percentage of possession, whilst eight won having less than half of the possession.
This is only a small pool of data, and more shall have to be gathered to strengthen my point. I do not want to say that having possession is a disadvantage, most of the top teams in Europe play in a style that sees them dominate possession. I think the salient point to be made, is how to use possession in a match; if a team is losing, the side defending a one goal lead will be comfortable if the passing of the losing side is safe and in front of their back four. Louis van Gaal was criticised for changing Manchester United's style to be more direct in the latter stages of the game vs. West Ham, but it worked. A direct approach, by taking gambles and getting the ball forward as opposed to ensuring ball retention can undoubtedly get results. In summary; if you can win the game playing beautiful passing and outmanoeuvre the opposition as undoubtedly many great teams down the years have done- that is commendable. Making safe passes and keeping meaningless possession when you are losing, is counter productive on the other hand. There is no shame in adopting a more direct approach in order to get an equalising goal. Football is about getting results ultimately.