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Thursday, 28 May 2015

Morgan Schneiderlin: Manchester United's Midfield Solution?


Manchester United have been linked with a whole host of different footballers across Europe to complement and ultimately replace Michael Carrick’s composure in the midfield. Many who have been named, are typical box-to-box players, with tenacity in tackling, precise passing and who can contribute goals. Ilkay Gündogan, Arturo Vidal, and former red, Paul Pogba are examples of high quality players who are repeatedly mentioned in newspapers and media as being linked with Manchester United. No doubt these players would fit the criteria necessary, but another player often linked is Morgan Schneiderlin. Here is the perfect, pragmatic choice, balancing ability with logistical sense. Schneiderlin is proven in the Premier League, and English football, shown by his rise through the leagues in his long career with Southampton to date. He is now looking to move to the next step and Manchester United can provide that, whilst probably having a more realistic chance of affording and persuading to obtain him compared to raiding the likes of Juventus. It is worth noting that whilst we get carried away with the excitement and competitiveness of the English Premier League- Juventus are playing in the Champions League final, whereas Manchester United did not participate in it at all. Paul Pogba would not be furthering his career ambitions by swapping Turin for Manchester at this point.
Morgan Schneiderlin has just completed another excellent season with Southampton. At 25 he is also the ideal age to take over the mantle of midfield playmaker and enforcer of United’s midfield. Manchester United have more forward minded midfielders to unlock defences in Juan Mata, Angel di Maria and Ander Herrera; Schneiderlin would provide the physical competitiveness behind them. Here I look at some statistics to show Schneiderlin’s performance in comparison to some more glamorous names.

Numbers gathered using averages from the last three seasons (two for Gundogan, due to injury). Source: Squawka

The table shows Schneiderlin's numbers are not dissimilar to the other players included in the graph. He can use the ball intelligently, nearing 90% pass completion but still ensuring that 65% of passes are forward and progressive, rather than simply laying it off to safer options. Schneiderlin's stats show he is adept at defending, making many more interceptions than Gündogan, Pogba, or Vidal and making far more tackles than Gündogan and Pogba, with the tenacious Vidal making only a marginal number more. Where Schneiderlin falls somewhat short in comparison is creating chances. At Manchester United, however, he would be less responsible for supplying through balls for the forwards and more responsible for providing cover for their attacking exploits but also ensuring much needed composure for United's passing and possession-minded style of play. In Mata, di Maria and Herrera, United are well equipped to score goals and create chances, but United are desperately in need of a physically combative player behind these skilful but lightweight midfielders.

Conclusion: Michael Carrick rightly received praise for his performances, when he was fit this season. He managed only 18 league games however, and cannot play forever. Schneiderlin could be slotted alongside Carrick for the upcoming season with the triumvirate of di Maria, Herrera and Mata in front of them, with Rooney operating as a lone striker? Schneiderlin is dynamic, he would chip in with goals, give United more steel in the midfield and retain the ball effectively like van Gaal encourages this new look United side to do. Signing Schneiderlin would be a realistic, sensibly priced deal and one which would benefit both the player and Manchester United. It needs to be done soon though, with Arsenal closely linked with bidding for him!
 

Sunday, 12 April 2015

Economy and Efficiency: Santiago Cazorla vs. Burnley


The Burnley vs Arsenal game on the 11th April 2015 made for intriguing viewing. Arsenal, chasing an eighth straight league win, fought a narrow victory over relegation threatened Burnley; one nil. With Aaron Ramsey scoring the only goal of the game soon after the ten minute mark, Arsenal were in a situation where they were defending this slender lead for the rest of the game. Once it was one nil, the easy assumption to make would be that Arsenal would run riot and Sanchez and Giroud would help themselves to goals as they did against Liverpool the weekend previous. As it transpired, the game was one which tested Arsenal's patience, resolve and pragmatism due to Burnley's efforts and it quickly became obvious this would be no cricket score. I shall point to the role of Santi Cazorla in the Arsenal midfield and argue he was a focal point of carrying out the balance between ball retention and providing a threat. Santi Cazorla’s economy and efficiency with the ball was superb. His intelligent, quick-but not hurried-passing frustrated Burnley increasingly when they desperately needed the ball in search of an equaliser. Moreover, as the game progressed and Burnley tried to attack in the second half, Cazorla’s performance and influence rose.
Arsenal like to keep possession of the ball and as the second half progressed they managed to accomplish more authority of the game’s tempo despite Burnley’s best attempts.  Arsenal were distributing the ball frequently in the middle of the pitch, where Burnley were pressing quickly and so keeping calm possession was not easy. Composure was paramount to Arsenal's success and Cazorla’s vision to see teammates before receiving the ball was evident with quick one touch passes before interceptions were possible. Cazorla’s pass completion was 94%, compared to Arsenal’s average of 83%; this despite his position being in the most congested part of the field, just on the half way line. This was also higher than his own average of 88% in the league this season. Pass completion by itself is a useless statistic, and if you are chasing the game, then risks need to be taken and merely making safe passes in safe positions is not threatening to the opposition. Arsenal, however were preserving a narrow marginal advantage in the game and Cazorla’s immensely impressive ball retention under pressure caused frustration for Burnley and breathing space for Arsenal.  His ability to receive and pass the ball efficiently in tight spaces gave his pacey teammates like Bellerin, Sanchez and Welbeck license to receive the ball in open channels and be able to try and create chances. Furthermore, Cazorla found the balance between being safe with the ball and providing a threat. He attempted more dribbles in the match than any other Arsenal player, and had three shots outside the box. Cazorla is a proven, fine player at shooting from range, and was close to scoring twice against Burnley when it was not a clear cut chance situation.

In conclusion, Cazorla was central to Arsenal’s preservation of their one goal lead, drawing Burnley players into trying to dispossess him and being able to find teammates in good spaces, and crucially this improved as the game progressed. There is no doubt that having an enforcer in Francis Coquelin helps him in midfield and recently Cazorla’s fine form has been synonymous with the rise of the young French midfielder just behind him in midfield. Cazorla will win more plaudits in many more games than this one, however his subtlety, efficiency and intelligence on the ball in a pressure situation was superb in this important Arsenal win.

Statistics gathered from 'Squawka' and 'Whoscored' databases.

Tuesday, 17 March 2015

Why Possession is Not Conducive to Victory in Football: Statistics and Conclusions

Although the perception that possession is the way to win football matches is decreasing, perhaps due to the comparative decline of Spain and Barcelona in recent years, there is still a misguided belief that if a team commands superior possession, they must be the superior side in a match. Passing football can look beautiful and certainly it can get results, but it is not conducive to getting three points. There has been a lot of work on statistics in recent times, the 'Numbers Game' publication by Chris Anderson and David Sally is an illuminating read on why possession and even shots on goal are not safe means of winning a match.
I have collated data from the Premier league and Championship on the 14th March 2015, and the following table and scatter graph show that an overwhelming amount of games were won by teams who had less possession than their opponents. Furthermore, Burnley's 30% possession and victory came against the champions Manchester City, and low lying Cardiff City's victory and less than one third of possession came against promotion chasing Brentford.
 
Winning Sides
Possession%
Crystal Palace
43
Aston Villa
60
WestBromwichAlbion
43
Arsenal
68
Burnley
30
Middlesbrough
43
Blackburn Rovers
47
Watford
62
Bournemouth
65
Cardiff City
33
Bolton Wanderers
45
Wigan
42

As you can see, four sides won with having a higher percentage of possession, whilst eight won having less than half of the possession.
This is only a small pool of data, and more shall have to be gathered to strengthen my point. I do not want to say that having possession is a disadvantage, most of the top teams in Europe play in a style that sees them dominate possession. I think the salient point to be made, is how to use possession in a match; if a team is losing, the side defending a one goal lead will be comfortable if the passing of the losing side is safe and in front of their back four. Louis van Gaal was criticised for changing Manchester United's style to be more direct in the latter stages of the game vs. West Ham, but it worked. A direct approach, by taking gambles and getting the ball forward as opposed to ensuring ball retention can undoubtedly get results. In summary; if you can win the game playing beautiful passing and outmanoeuvre the opposition as undoubtedly many great teams down the years have done- that is commendable. Making safe passes and keeping meaningless possession when you are losing, is counter productive on the other hand. There is no shame in adopting a more direct approach in order to get an equalising goal. Football is about getting results ultimately.