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Thursday 19 March 2015
Tuesday 17 March 2015
Why Possession is Not Conducive to Victory in Football: Statistics and Conclusions
Although the perception that possession is the way to win football matches is decreasing, perhaps due to the comparative decline of Spain and Barcelona in recent years, there is still a misguided belief that if a team commands superior possession, they must be the superior side in a match. Passing football can look beautiful and certainly it can get results, but it is not conducive to getting three points. There has been a lot of work on statistics in recent times, the 'Numbers Game' publication by Chris Anderson and David Sally is an illuminating read on why possession and even shots on goal are not safe means of winning a match.
I have collated data from the Premier league and Championship on the 14th March 2015, and the following table and scatter graph show that an overwhelming amount of games were won by teams who had less possession than their opponents. Furthermore, Burnley's 30% possession and victory came against the champions Manchester City, and low lying Cardiff City's victory and less than one third of possession came against promotion chasing Brentford.
As you can see, four sides won with having a higher percentage of possession, whilst eight won having less than half of the possession.
This is only a small pool of data, and more shall have to be gathered to strengthen my point. I do not want to say that having possession is a disadvantage, most of the top teams in Europe play in a style that sees them dominate possession. I think the salient point to be made, is how to use possession in a match; if a team is losing, the side defending a one goal lead will be comfortable if the passing of the losing side is safe and in front of their back four. Louis van Gaal was criticised for changing Manchester United's style to be more direct in the latter stages of the game vs. West Ham, but it worked. A direct approach, by taking gambles and getting the ball forward as opposed to ensuring ball retention can undoubtedly get results. In summary; if you can win the game playing beautiful passing and outmanoeuvre the opposition as undoubtedly many great teams down the years have done- that is commendable. Making safe passes and keeping meaningless possession when you are losing, is counter productive on the other hand. There is no shame in adopting a more direct approach in order to get an equalising goal. Football is about getting results ultimately.
I have collated data from the Premier league and Championship on the 14th March 2015, and the following table and scatter graph show that an overwhelming amount of games were won by teams who had less possession than their opponents. Furthermore, Burnley's 30% possession and victory came against the champions Manchester City, and low lying Cardiff City's victory and less than one third of possession came against promotion chasing Brentford.
Winning Sides
|
Possession%
|
Crystal Palace
|
43
|
Aston Villa
|
60
|
WestBromwichAlbion
|
43
|
Arsenal
|
68
|
Burnley
|
30
|
Middlesbrough
|
43
|
Blackburn Rovers
|
47
|
Watford
|
62
|
Bournemouth
|
65
|
Cardiff City
|
33
|
Bolton Wanderers
|
45
|
Wigan
|
42
|
This is only a small pool of data, and more shall have to be gathered to strengthen my point. I do not want to say that having possession is a disadvantage, most of the top teams in Europe play in a style that sees them dominate possession. I think the salient point to be made, is how to use possession in a match; if a team is losing, the side defending a one goal lead will be comfortable if the passing of the losing side is safe and in front of their back four. Louis van Gaal was criticised for changing Manchester United's style to be more direct in the latter stages of the game vs. West Ham, but it worked. A direct approach, by taking gambles and getting the ball forward as opposed to ensuring ball retention can undoubtedly get results. In summary; if you can win the game playing beautiful passing and outmanoeuvre the opposition as undoubtedly many great teams down the years have done- that is commendable. Making safe passes and keeping meaningless possession when you are losing, is counter productive on the other hand. There is no shame in adopting a more direct approach in order to get an equalising goal. Football is about getting results ultimately.
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